In our increasingly dumb world, we are now faced with a not-so-fair fight. We are not pitting the wokes versus the woks. Before anyone gets too offended, let me start off by pointing out that I am in no way comparing the Chinese people to a food related item. It was just too convenient of a framing device NOT to use. Comparing any ethnicity to a food related item (or food for that matter) is ridiculous, amiright Dr. Biden?
I would like to point out that the Breakfast Taco comment really did a great job distracting from how the doctor butchered the pronunciation of bodega!
Once upon a time we had these things called playgrounds where children would go and play outside. Along with the slides, swings, and the monkey bars was a fabulous contraption called the see-saw.
The greater the weight discrepancy between the two children on opposite ends of the see-saw, the more leverage that the heavier child had. Once the lighter child was in the air they were completely dependent on the heavier one to jump and allow them back down. The heavier child gets to decide how fast the other child descends based on the force applied to their jump. Or they could just jump off the see-saw completely, sending their playmate crashing to the ground. The heavier child had all of the leverage.
Well, that which applies on the playground also applies in the real world... and America is now Ariana Grande on a political see-saw with Chinese version of Lizzo. Take it from me, that's not a great place to be.
We've discussed in this space before the hold that the "environmentalists" hold over the left. They use leverage in the form of voting power to push for action against climate change. If politicians do not support the climate actions and policies they prefer they will:
not to support those candidates
not fund their campaigns
run alternative candidates against them to remove them from office
Communist dictatorships have no such concern. People that disagree with the leadership have essentially no leverage over their leadership.
It is important to understand that this is not an endorsement of an "advantage" of communist dictatorships, but it is a statement of fact. Democracies are answerable to their populations in ways that dictatorships aren't. The righteousness of the cause or the popularity with the population is of little consequence to a communist dictator.
So, let's assume for the sake of argument that all of the claims of the climate change activists are correct. That CO2 emissions are driving up the temperature of the earth. This is being done in an unsustainable manner. This rise in temperature can be curtailed by dramatically reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. This is the only method that this warming may be potentially slowed or perhaps reversed.
OK, even if all of that is correct, we’re still left with one inescapable, inconvenient truth... China’s Communist Leaders don’t care. In fact, it is in their best interest NOT to care. Not caring gives them that little thing called leverage!
Which part of this chart implies that China cares about their CO2 emissions? I'll wait.
Yeah, they don't care... and even if the population of China were to care, their leaders still wouldn't. and that is all that matters because if you hadn't noticed over the past few years... the CCP doesn't care too much about what the people think.
And that is what gets us to our current moment. Last week our totally not at all elderly, completely coherent Speaker of the House, Nancy P, decided it would be a great idea to visit Taiwan. You know what country was none too pleased with the visit? I'll give you a clue - it's where everyone's favorite pandemic launched a couple of years ago. Turns out that the Chinese Communist Party believes that Taiwan is totes theirs. Always has been, always will be.
OK, so we made Winnie the Pooh a little angry, what does that have to do with climate change and leverage over the United States?
China knows that the United States is currently obsessed with climate change and China’s use of dirty fuel (in addition to the West's addiction to products manufactured in China) can be used against the U.S. (and the rest of the Western World).
Ironically, China's position as the world's largest CO2 emitter is what has given it significant leverage in the eco-political arena. In an environment where the world's politicians are motivated to answer to their eco-activist bases, not caring about the environment gives you a lot of power. Don't like the actions of foreign adversaries? Just pull out of climate talks / agreements. Even better, increase your use of coal and other greenhouse gas emitters WHILE pulling out of climate talks.
This has a two-fold effect. First, this puts political pressure on your adversaries to not take actions that you find distasteful in the future. Feel like that island to your south is actually yours? What if you threaten to increase your coal use by 25% over the next 5 years if your adversaries don't accede to your claims? 50%? 75%? What is the point where the eco-activists would pressure politicians to say that little island is part of China? C'mon, it's for the planet!
Well, surely the eco-activists would put the autonomy of the people of Taiwan over climate concerns, wouldn't they?
Did you know that:
80% of Rare Earth Elements needed for wind turbines are mined in China
76% of the lithium-ion batteries used in electric cars come from China
Ask yourself if Taiwan’s autonomy is important again knowing how vital China is to the eco-activists aims. Cutting off China means giving up a large portion of the resources needed to "go green." Does it seem like a foregone conclusion that western politicians wouldn’t sell out Taiwan if it meant placating their constituents?
This isn’t to insinuate that climate concerns are the only area where China can use leverage over western leaders. It is only to point out that this is one very obvious pain point. The reliance of western societies on cheap goods from China is certainly another area where significant leverage can be placed on the us.
I don't believe that a military strike on Taiwan from China is eminent. But the important thing to note is that doesn't need to be. The takeover could be soft (or as soft as things go). Politicians in the Western World will be loath to recognize the independence of Taiwan for a variety of reasons… potentially alienating one of their most loyal voting constituencies being only one of them. I get the sense that Hong Kong was a test run. Taiwan, sadly for them, may be next in line.